Ukraine une guerre Russie-USA par procuration (UnlimPhotos)

La guerre Russie-USA par procuration



The United States gathered on Tuesday, April 26, 2022 in Germany some forty allied countries to further arm Ukraine against the Russian invader. Context and objectives.

Ukraine a Russia-US Proxy War (UnlimPhotos)
Ukraine a Russia-US Proxy War (UnlimPhotos)

The United States is ready to do anything to make Ukraine win against Russia, the Pentagon chief said: “Ukraine clearly believes that it can win and so does everyone here” ( US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin). Because, since February 24, 2022, the war has changed in dimension.

Russia vs West

The USA is now directly involved in the Ukraine affair. They undeniably took the lead in operations, thanks to their global power: financial, economic, technological, military and… media.
Volodymyr Zelensky, for his part, considers that the future of Ukraine depends solely on the USA, which means that, if the outcome of the crisis turns out to his advantage, he cannot refuse them anything. The USA and their European satellites have become stricto sensu co-belligerents. The conflict has evolved: it has become a Russia versus the West conflict, by President Putin’s own admission.

Europe lagging behind

When war broke out in February, the United States carefully let the Europeans handle the matter. The latter demonstrated an activism that was as messy as it was ineffective: they provided unanimous assurances of support for President Zelensky, but everyone could see that none of them had the political, any more than material, to influence the course of events and even less to save Ukraine.
Europe as a military power is pure fiction. Its power is no more than that of the Vatican (which, at least, does not claim to save Ukraine).

The Solomon Islands Thorn

At the same time, the USA suffered a severe setback in the Pacific with the Solomon Islands – China security agreement and even if an American delegation rushed in two days later, the damage was done. The Solomon Islands occupy a crucial geographical position (think of Guadalcanal) which makes it possible to control the lines of communication between the USA, Australia and New Zealand.

The American bet

The period of observation (and informational aid to Ukraine) of the beginning of the Russian invasion allowed the Americans to verify that the Russian army was of an operational level relevant to the Second World War and, consequently, , totally vulnerable to current US military power (2ᵉ offset). The conclusion is that a massive American support in armament and information can allow the Ukrainian army to drive back the Russian army, and this, to the point of making Ukraine regain its territorial integrity – Crimea included. This is a calculated bet.

About Russian weapons

The famous modern armaments of Russia are nothing but wind. Proof of this is the famous attack by Russia with “ultra-precise” weapons on an armament factory in kyiv (during the visit of Antonio Guterres, UN Secretary General). This attack only destroys a nearby building… American ultra-precision is less than 5 meters and not 150 meters!
Proof if any of the Russian defect in Glonass (GPS equivalent). The GPS is scrambled over Ukraine but the military modes (known as P code and M code) are not affected. Russian communications are scrambled and some Russian generals who have used their mobile phones have never recovered… Elon Musk’s StarLinks supplied by the hundreds to Ukraine are cyber protected. The famous Russian cyber threat does not exist for Americans.

A US-China duopoly

American strategic thinking is underpinned by a single overarching ulterior motive: the US-China rivalry. These two powers erase the others and are shaping the world of tomorrow. That’s a fact. The claims of other actors are nonsense (including that of hyper-power Europe).
We are therefore witnessing the emergence of a USA-China duopoly where each of the players will have their area of ​​influence. Unlike in the past, the borders may be indecisive in some cases. The global organization will be of the ”Westphalian” type because it is the will of China.
In exchange, it will recognize in a symmetrical way the American supremacy on the zone which will be devolved to it. For the USA, what matters is “global” stability like that of the Cold War era, for China, this order is only a step towards a global supremacy that it thinks it has to assume for the good of the entire planet (the necessary energy transition that only it can impose, because only it can provide the material means throughout the globe).

Sharing the world

The Ukrainian affair is an opportunity for the USA. The war was not provoked by them (their almost indolent inaction after the Crimean affair is proof enough: it was the time of Obama with an undisguised disinterest in European affairs in favor of his famous ‘ Pacific shift). It is now seen by strategists as potentially producing significant, if not crucial, benefits in sharing the world with China.
It is understood in this context that, from now on, Russia is definitively pushed into the Chinese sphere of influence, and therefore becomes an objective ally and a ‘proxy’ of China. It is therefore essential for the USA to weaken Russia economically and militarily. Clearly, it is a question of ‘nanifying’ Russia and constraining it in such a way as to secure the ‘eastern’ European border of the American zone of influence.

And Europe in all this?

The European States are in this context the equivalent of the “federates” for the ancient Roman Empire (the provincialization of Western Europe is almost acquired through NATO and the little troublemakers who could dream of European independence will be treated like jesters like their ancestors by Rome).
In this context, Ukraine (therefore considered as a full-fledged ‘proxy’ of the USA) must be able to regain all of its previously recognized legal space, which will allow the installation of US military bases in the vicinity of the Azov and the Black Sea to control them (it is repeated that in the hypothesis concerned, Ukraine will not be able to refuse anything to the USA). This is a strategic requirement to counter the influence (and threaten) the Chinese Silk Roads that pass near these regions.

Ukraine, an epiphenomenon

The script for American success is in place. He will encounter difficulties, because history teaches that reality never respects even the best laid plans. Beyond the difficulties, the real problem remains Putin’s reaction to an inevitable humiliating defeat. There are two kinds of possible reactions: acceptance or not. If there is acceptance, the scenario ends. In the other case, we have a change in the nature of the conflict and that is the subject of a totally different scenario.
But what is at stake remains the USA-China duopoly which is situated in the ‘long’ duration of history. Ukraine is only a triggering epiphenomenon that accelerates history (like Corcyra in the Peloponnesian War).
The war in Ukraine is just a proxy war between Russia and the United States. Who can doubt it?

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