Illiquidité : le risque s'accentue pour les entreprises

Illiquidity: the risk is increasing for companies – Flow / cash management > Treasury

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Covid-19, shortage of raw materials, explosion of energy costs, inflation… For the past two years, companies have been going through a succession of crises. “The public authorities supported these various crises, first with the distribution of 650,000 PGE but also through the moratorium on tax and moral charges in 2020 and 2021which represents €13 billionas well as other various and varied aids”recalls Jérôme Mandrillon, general delegate of the assizes of payment deadlines and financing, during a webinar organized on October 18, 2022 by Option Finance, in partnership with Ellisphere.

As a result, corporate insolvencies currently remain below the 2019 level (which saw around 50,000 business failures), “even if they have been on the rise for a few months”, emphasizes Jérôme Mandrillon. Before continuing: “today, concerns remain and will intensify in 2023 due to the rising cost of energy, difficulties in reimbursing PGEs and reimbursements of social moratoriums”. For example, URSSAF Ile-de-France is again registering privileges for unpaid dues since early September 2022. “And she will resume his assignments in judicial liquidation early January 2023″informs Jérôme Mandrillon.

Some sectors are likely to be particularly affected, such as construction or restorationas well as certain business categories. “These are mainly VSEs that have benefited from EMPs and who will have to reimburse them. Moreover, more and more small businesses are seeking credit mediation, points out Alain Luminel, head of the financial expertise division at Ellisphere. This context therefore calls on companies to be extremely vigilant with regard to the financial development of their customers and their suppliers.

A resilience indicator

To prevent the risk of failure, the webinar highlighted the need to analyze a number of data to measure the acceptable level of cash for companies. In this context, Ellisphere presented its resilience index, set up during the health crisis. Its goal ? Determine how a company will be able to carry out normal activity and measure the associated credit risk. This index is based on two pillars: sectoral and financial. “It is important to take an interest in the sectors of activity and to watch how they evolve. To set up the index, we have chosen to work on activity codes“, specifies Alain Luminel.

Regarding the financial aspect, Ellisphere scrutinizes, via this index, two major ratios: reduced operating liquidity and gross operating margin to sales. “Furthermore, we recently decided to change this resilience index because we are now seeing structural shocks that are likely to be stronger and last over time, reveals Alain Luminel. Ellisphere has therefore readjusted its sector reference system, taking into account, in particular, of the energy crisis and inflation. “We do monitoring and analysis, we now follow business failures on a weekly basis and we regularly carry out bank checks to decipher what is happening in certain sectors of activity”, explains the head of the financial expertise division. The company also changed its financial indicator. She now qualifies the liquidity ratio taking into account the risk of illiquidity, the level of margin and the financial surface of the company.

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