CAC 40, oil, inflation, growth… “my expectations have materialized” (Marc Touati)

CAC 40, oil, inflation, growth… “my expectations have materialized” (Marc Touati)

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Formerly a young chief economist at Banque Populaire and Natexis (from 1997 to 2007), our columnist Marc Touati is currently president of the cabinet ACDEFI (which means “Aux Commandes De l’Économie et de la Finance”). In 2007, wishing to make the economy accessible to all and to preserve his “freedom of speech”, he decided to create ACDEFI “in total independence”. “While the economic culture of the French is still quite low, I have started to democratize the economy”, welcomes the expert.

Marc Touati advises business leaders (large groups, banks, insurance companies, SMEs, etc.) with interventions within executive committees. He gives conferences, where he develops his analyzes and forecasts in front of bank customers, employees or business customers, or even with employers’ groups and in chambers of commerce, “to develop their knowledge and understanding of economy, markets and their prospects”. He writes a weekly publication, Economy and Strategies. On request, he carries out studies on specific themes, markets (energy, etc.), potential mergers, etc.

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However, he refuses to advise individuals, because “it would be too time-consuming and would involve numerous hirings, so too much time to manage staff and not enough to do the job of economist”. “After growing up in an HLM city in Orly, I worked a lot. Currently, I am lucky to be able to do only what I like. More missions, with individuals, it would be too much work”, argues Marc Touati, who however specifies that he created a Youtube channel in the spring of 2020, with already more than 51,000 subscribers, and which affects, among other things, many individuals.

He writes books, including the next, entitled Reset II. Welcome to the world after, will be released at the start of the school year (September 1). “While all my books so far have been well received, this will be my tenth book, which I hope will be a new best seller“, indicates the economist.

Marc Touati

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What data does he base his advice on?

While Marc Touati works from statistics “and not from the forecasts of others”, he believes that he could not have done 20 years ago what he is doing now, because at the time – until the financial crisis of 2008-2009 – these statistics were “paid and very expensive”, which would have resulted in particularly high costs for his company. Currently, almost all statistics are free and freely available on the Internet.

Its main sources are Insee, Eurostat, the Banque de France (BdF), the European Central Bank (ECB), the United States Federal Reserve (Fed), the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and S&P Global.

“Many of my tips have come to fruition”

“I am one of the few economists to review my forecasts every year for more than 25 years, recognizing where necessary when I was wrong. But overall, in all humility, my forecasts and those of my teams have proved to be relevant, many of my anticipations having materialized”, says Marc Touati.

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“My first big hit dates back to early 1998. At the time, I launched a leading indicator on the French economy. On this basis and taking into account the start of the Internet revolution in France, I announced, faced with to many skeptics, a GDP growth of more than 3% that year. A forecast that turned out to be very close to reality (3.6% in the end)”, reports the economist.

The following year, Marc Touati predicted a rise in the CAC 40 to 7,000 points in 2000, which seemed out of reach in the eyes of many stakeholders. A forecast which however almost materialized, the CAC 40 having exceeded 6,900 points on September 4, 2000, registering a new historical peak.

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In 2008, when the price of oil had soared to almost 150 dollars a barrel, and the vast majority of economists (particularly within the major American and European banks) saw black gold continue to soar to more than 200 dollars, the economist had anticipated a heavy relapse, due to the correlation between the price of black gold and the expected (negative) trajectory of the economy. “Those who listened to me then earned a lot of money,” he says.

Also in 2008, when the euro rose to a peak of 1.60 against the dollar, Marc Touati correctly anticipated its relapse.

In 2009, in the midst of the financial crisis, Marc Touati was also one of the few to remain optimistic. “Rightly, since this year marked the beginning of a long ascent for the stock markets of the planet, while global economic growth has restarted”, he welcomes.

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As early as 2021, faced with the disbelief of many, Marc Touati had raised the specter of a surge in inflation due to shortages and printing money. “A forecast made well before the war in Ukraine, therefore,” he argues.

Finally, as early as last fall, he warned of a probable next crash in the stock market, bonds and cryptocurrencies. A crash that has unfortunately well and truly materialized…

Find below Marc Touati’s latest video on his Youtube channel: West in recession, growing BRICs, Taiwan… what are the dangers?

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